The race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican state Sen. John Braun for Washington’s competitive 3rd Congressional District appeared to be neck-and-neck for weeks leading up to Nov. 3. But ultimately, the Southwest Washington Democrat won reelection — possibly with her largest margin to date.
The incumbent had 54.2% of votes as of Wednesday evening. She was leading Braun by more than 9 percentage points, with 74% of votes counted, according to the Associated Press, which has called the race for Gluesenkamp Perez.
“The formula that she has is working,” said Dean Nielsen, a Seattle-based Democratic political consultant.
That formula has largely consisted of emphasizing issues that directly impact Southwest Washington residents’ daily lives — like protecting salmon populations and investing in rural healthcare and skilled trade programs — even if that means breaking with her party along the way.
“Over and over, she’s reached out to the other side and worked with her Republican colleagues on issues that she viewed as important,” Nielsen said. “That was not necessarily what every Democrat wanted her to do, but she did anyway.”
During a victory speech in downtown Vancouver Tuesday night, Gluesenkamp Perez reaffirmed her focus on a range of policies, including ones that would reduce red tape for daycare providers and limit the brightness of headlights in a district where winding, rural roads can make driving distractions more dangerous.
“When Congress shows it can be useful on the small things…people start to believe that you can be trusted with the big things,” she said. “That is how you earn back trust. You put the same care into an oil change as you do on a big-ticket job like an engine rebuild.”
In January, Gluesenkamp Perez will begin her third term in Congress as part of a sizable Democratic majority in the House and Senate — a position she’s never been in before. President Donald Trump’s veto power will likely limit Democrats’ ability to pass significant legislation, but the next two years could still be a crucial test of whether the party will be able to develop a clear agenda that addresses the frustrations over cost of living that drove voters to turn out for Democrats in such huge margins this election.
That agenda should focus on two issues, according to Nielsen — affordability and accountability. He cautioned that, despite what political observers are calling a blue tsunami, Democrats should be wary of taking the wrong lesson from the results.
“We went into 2024 with this, you know, hubris,” he said, “and I think that the big danger for the Democratic Party nationally is that we do the same thing in 2028.”
Rebecca Tweed, a conservative political strategist based in Oregon, expected Democrats to do well on Tuesday. But she was shocked by the scale of the results.
She attributes Braun’s loss in the 3rd District race to the nationwide rebuke of Trump.
“For a Congressional race, it’s very hard to go against the national wave,” she said. “I don’t know that John Braun could have done anything different. I think he ran a very good campaign for what he could do.”
In a different political environment, she said, Gluesenkamp Perez “would’ve been in a lot of trouble.”
But Erin Covey, who leads The Cook Political Report’s U.S. House coverage, said the political environment in the 3rd District will likely keep improving for Democrats.
“This district is trending Democrats’ way over time, and it should continue to trend that way due to population growth in that part of the state,” Covey said.
Clark County, the largest and most Democratic-leaning county in the district, has been growing fast in recent years. In Vancouver, the county’s largest city, the population is expected to grow by about 40% over the next two decades, according to the city’s growth plan.
On its face, this bodes well for Gluesenkamp Perez in future reelection bids. But the leftward shift of the district could have other consequences.
“I do think that because of the way her district is trending, she is potentially gonna have to deal with more challengers on her left,” Covey said.
In this year’s August primary, nearly one in three Democratic-leaning voters supported Gluesenkamp Perez’s more progressive challenger, Brent Hennrich.
The Democratic majority that takes the House in January will include increasing numbers of two distinct ideological factions — Gluesenkamp Perez’s moderate Blue Dog coalition and the most progressive wing of the Democratic caucus, known as “The Squad.”
“You have kind of the two ends of the big tent that Democrats have right now in the House that are both growing,” Covey said. “I don’t have a great sense at this point of what direction they’re going, and I think a lot of that is dependent on what the broader Democratic agenda looks like, which is still kind of unclear.”
With such sweeping gains in the House and Senate, Covey said, Democrats now have the opportunity — and challenge — to hammer out a set of policies that could lay the groundwork for “transformative legislation” if their party ends up with a governing trifecta — the House, the Senate, and the presidency — in 2028.
