It’s over 90 degrees under the Yakima sun, and Giovanni Severino is walking door-to-door in a quiet, mostly Latino neighborhood. He’s the organizing manager for Progreso, a nonprofit focusing on Latino voter engagement, and he’s trying to drum up interest in two key legislative races.
It’s a tall task.
Most people don’t answer the doors to their small, single-family homes. Those that do say they aren’t aware of who represents them in Olympia, let alone who’s challenging those seats.
“I think that folks are just tired of not really being represented by folks that share the same values as they do,” Severino said.
The 14th Legislative District, centered around Yakima, is home to one of the largest populations of Latino voters in the state. It’s one of several Republican districts that state Democrats are aiming to flip this election cycle. Flipping seats is a Democratic priority as they edge closer to a supermajority in Olympia, which would give them broad authority to pass legislation or amend the state constitution without Republican buy-in.
The state GOP is skeptical that this effort will prevail in Yakima, one of the most deeply Republican parts of Washington. But Democrat insiders see reasons to be hopeful.
“The Latino community is not loyal to the Democrats, they're not loyal to the Republicans,” said Stephen Paolini, a Democratic political consultant who has been watching the 14th district this election cycle. “They're looking for who is going to speak to the issues that they are feeling, and I think this year we have a great opportunity as Democrats to dive into that.”
Broad national dissatisfaction with President Trump could translate into a win for Democrats here, Paolini said.
Trump’s approval ratings nationally have fallen to historic lows, sitting at 35% as of latest polling.
And a summer surge in arrests by federal immigration officials is driving renewed concern in Yakima, where about 18% of the population are immigrants. According to researchers, the majority of this population are farmworkers who have immigrated from Mexico in the 1990s. The Trump administration has been looking to increase workplace raids over the past year as part of a renewed push to crack down on illegal immigration. About 20% of immigration arrests statewide have happened in Yakima.
Xochitl Flores, a Yakima day care owner who doesn’t identify as either a Democrat or a Republican, said she’s noticed fear in the community. She immigrated from Mexico and is a U.S. citizen eligible to vote in the upcoming election.
“People don’t want to even go out on the streets,” said Flores, who came to her door to talk to Severino and peruse his clipboard of voter pamphlets. “Everybody is a human, and everybody deserves to be able to go outside and feel free. That’s why we came to this country.”
For decades, Yakima has been represented by a Republican in both its state Senate seat and in its two House seats. This year, those House seats are up for election, and two Democrats, Chelsea Dimas and Ezequiel Morfin, are challenging the incumbent Republicans, Gloria Mendoza and Deb Manjarrez.
Both Republicans lead in campaign funds raised, with Manjarrez over $77,000. Her opponent, Morfin, has raised about $21,000. Mendoza has over $58,000 in her campaign coffers, while her Democrat opponent, Dimas, has raised $34,000.
Democrats began to view this area as a battleground in 2021, when a coalition of advocates for the Latino community presented research showing that a Latino majority was being divided across districts. The state’s redistricting commission officially redrew the district’s boundaries in 2024 in an effort that consolidated much of the Latino community and the Yakama Nation Indian Reservation into one district. Advocates who pushed for it said the previous lines were diluting the power of the Latino vote.
“There has been a historic, agricultural-based, Latino community out in Eastern Washington for a very long time, and it has really been shut out of politics and representation for a very long time,” said Matt Barreto, director of the UCLA Voting Rights Project, which was a part of the effort to research new district lines in the area.
Later that year, a state Senate race between Democratic challenger Maria Beltran and sitting Republican Curtis King ended in the closest race in 30 years. Beltran lost by just a thousand votes, and it was a race that made organizers feel that if voter engagement could be improved, Democrats could have a chance.
“Our data analysis is that it was really a turnout issue more than sort of a feeling more aligned with Republicans,” Washington State Democratic Party Chair Shasti Conrad said. “And so we have done more work in really trying to kind of learn the lessons of particularly how to engage the Latino community.”
Turnout in the Yakima region tends to be historically some of the lowest in the state, hovering at just under a third of the voting population. In addition to the close Senate race, another 2024 House race between Dimas and Rep. Mendoza lost by 3,000 votes.
Democrats felt both those races were so close that a shift in voter turnout this year could put them over the top.
But the GOP isn’t buying it.
“The Washington State Republican Party does not consider the 14th District particularly vulnerable,” said Jim Walsh, a state representative from Aberdeen and the leader of the Washington GOP.
Republicans Mendoza and Manjarrez have “done a good job representing the people,” Walsh said.
In order to achieve a supermajority, Democrats would need to gain seven seats in the state House and four in the Senate. While many don’t believe a supermajority could happen this election cycle, they’re eyeing 2028. This year, Democrats hope to flip the 17th and 18th Districts, in southwest Washington, in addition to the 14th.
Republicans are hoping to pick up additional seats this election as well. In particular, they’re eyeing the 44th and 47th in Seattle’s suburbs.
