In a move toward more ‘climate-ready fisheries,’ federal officials are investing in tools that aim to predict how climate change will affect commercial fishing.
A new study from NOAA Fisheries looks at a group of four kinds of ground fish that right now are commonly caught together in deep water off the west coast. They include sablefish (also known as black cod), Dover sole, and two kinds of small red rock fish, shortspine thornyhead; and longspine thornyhead.
Using sophisticated computer modeling projections and tons of past data, the researchers looked at how these species will likely be affected by projections for warmer temperatures and lower oxygen levels because of climate change.
Lead author Owen Liu, who is is based at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle, says the research suggests that the most lucrative fish they looked at – sablefish – will see the most change in availability as it moves farther offshore.
“In some places, we're predicting as much as a 50% decline or more in the availability of sablefish, to fisheries within their current sort of fishing footprints, by the end of the century,” he said.
But the projections were not all doom and gloom. The study showed lower-value dover sole possibly becoming more abundant, because it tolerates low-oxygen well. The two species of small red rockfish they looked at had mixed results.
“That was surprising to me – that you could have something like Dover sole projected to do really well, actually relatively under climate change. And something else, like sablefish, kind of going the opposite direction,” Liu said.
The research could inform fisheries management and where offshore wind facilities are situated in the future.
The study is published in the journal Science Advances.
