A recent viral video claimed the Port of Seattle had been reduced to a “ghost town,” sparsely populated with only a few container ships.
Looks though, can sometimes be deceiving. The numbers from Northwest Seaport Alliance say volumes so far this year across the region are actually up compared to last year. In March, it was an 18% increase, partially attributed, port officials say to companies getting ready for tariffs from the Trump administration.
But those officials are also cautioning that if the trade war continues, a big slowdown is ahead with implications for consumers, and companies.
One Puget Sound entrepreneur who is having to adjust to the tariffs is the CEO and founder of Molly Moon’s Ice Cream, Molly Moon Neitzel.
‘Under the gun’
Molly Moon’s has big plans this year. The company is expanding its footprint to include shops in West Seattle and Kirkland, and on the waterfront at the edge of Pioneer Square inside the old Washington Street Boat Landing. That’s where we met to talk.
“We're standing here looking at Habitat Beach, which is this really wonderfully restored, gorgeous native-plants-full-rocky Washington coast beach,” Neitzel said. “It is magical down here at sunset.”
Founded in 2008, Molly Moon’s is known for its Pacific Northwest-inspired flavors like honey lavender, iced latte, and strawberry from the Skagit Valley. But not mango.
“People are always like ‘why don’t you have mango ice cream’ and I’m like, ‘because mangoes come from so far away,” Neitzel said.
That use of mostly local ingredients would seem to insulate Molly Moon’s from tariffs. But then you factor in ingredients like sugar, chocolate and coffee that have to be imported. Neitzel said the 10% across-the-board tariffs on goods from outside the U.S. was one thing.
But then she found out the compostable spoons used at Molly Moon’s were made in China and subject to a 145% tariff.
“Just the tariff on those alone were going to be between $90 [thousand] and $250,000 a year,” Neitzel said.
Neitzel said she’s having conversations with her supplier about sourcing the spoons from Thailand. She’s also exploring buying American-made spoons, which she’d be okay with, if it made economic sense.
However, Neitzel said: “It never feels good to have to be having those conversations, in a way that feels like you're sort of under the gun, which is what this feels like.”
‘A 20% to 40% reduction’
Port officials here in Western Washington say spoons for ice cream sundaes at Molly Moons represent only a small fraction of the flow of imports that could soon slow to a crawl.
“Our dashboard lights are blinking a warning right now,” said Port of Seattle Commissioner Ryan Calkins. He said the impact of the tariffs is just starting to be felt.
“While we won’t have concrete numbers until those ships come in or don’t, we’re forecasting somewhere between 20% and 40% reduction in the number of vessel calls coming in,” Calkins said.
He said that will ripple through the economy.
“The terminal operators call in shifts based on how much demand there is at the port,” Calkins said. “So if there’s no merchandise to move, the longshore workers, the truck drivers are going to be told not to come in.”
Then he said customers might find empty shelves. And small businesses might find it tough to plan for the future because of the uncertainty.
“If you can’t count on tariff structure to be somewhat steady over time, it really makes it hard for you to do long-term planning and therefore you’re more reluctant to make investments in that,” Calkins said.
‘It feels very shaky’
Back on the waterfront, Neitzel is counting the days until her newest ice cream shop opens.
But she’s also concerned for what the tariffs will mean for her ability to do business the way she wants to do it
“I really don’t want to raise our prices this year,” Neitzel said. “We needed to raise prices a lot through the pandemic to increase wages, and that’s not in our budget this year. It’s not in the plan.
“It feels very shaky right now, and we just didn't need this giant slam in our faces from all of these tariffs,” she said.
Neitzel said this uncertainty is not a good way to run a business and, in her words, it’s not a good way to run a country.
