Weather with Cliff Mass | KNKX

Weather with Cliff Mass

The decline in commercial aircraft traffic due to the new coronavirus will degrade weather forecasting, says Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the Univeristy of Washington.
Ted S. Warren / The Associated Press

Sprinkles and showers are in the forecast for most of Western Washington this weekend, with temperatures hovering around 50 degrees. It’s perfect weather for gardening or maybe taking a long run or walk in your neighborhood. The skies above likely will be quieter, too.

The spread of the new coronavirus already has slowed air traffic aloft. An even more dramatic decline in commercial flight schedules is coming soon. And that could affect weather forecasting.

A Seattle Sunset as seen on March 18, 2020.
Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

The official start of spring comes a little early this year, in tandem with the vernal equinox that showed up in most U.S. calendars on March 19. Although meteorological spring began in the Pacific Northwest about a month ago with signs of warmer weather, KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass says around now is when certain typical features of spring become evident.

Mount Rainier showing off March 8, with some lenticular cloud action.
Tim Durkan / Time Durkan Photography

Mount Rainier looms on horizons in the region like no other, dominating views when visible – or “out” as locals like to say. This massive 14,000-foot peak is an active volcano that inspires awe in visitors to the region and stands as one of our most recognizable icons.

It also has a profound effect on the weather around it – because of its size.

An early springtime view of Port Townsend Bay , as seen from the Larry Scott memorial trail on March 1, 2020.
Bellamy Pailthorp / KNKX

Do you doubt that spring has arrived in the Pacific Northwest? With cool temperatures and copious rain dousing much of the region lately, it can be hard to believe.

Just a couple of weeks ago, KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass talked about the typical arrival of "meteorological spring," when big storms cease and other weather changes indicate that for all practical purposes, winter has ended. It happens here a full month prior to the end of winter on the East Coast.

A view from Seattle on Feb 21, 2020.
Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

People in Western Washington have enjoyed plenty of mild, warm days and sunshine lately — typical weather for late winter and early spring. Suddenly, we’re shedding layers and searching for our sunglasses.

But in Eastern Washington and Oregon, early spring marks the onset of what can be a terrifying phenomenon: Northwest dust storms that dramatically reduce visibility and air quality when winds pick up.

A view from Seattle on Thursday, Feb. 20, 2020.
Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

The mornings have been cold and crisp under clear skies this week in many parts of the Pacific Northwest, with lows around freezing in places. But powerful sunbeams have pushed afternoon highs into the pleasant realm of the 50s.

KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass says this is in keeping with what he calls “meteorological spring,” when the weather stops delivering storms and cold temperatures that are the hallmarks of winter. Instead, trees and shrubs start sprouting green buds, crocuses push through the soil and people begin shedding layers of clothing needed in colder weather as they enjoy warmer temperatures.

Rain is in the forecast this weekend, but don't worry. Sun is on the horizon starting Monday.
Parker Miles Blohm / KNKX

The rain just keeps coming. Our reservoirs are above normal now, and it looks like there’s more rain on its way all weekend long. But can you trust that forecast? KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass says some weather apps are often the most acurate source — and anyone can check their reliability.

A flood watch continues till 4 o'clock Friday. The National Weather Service says although the rain had tapered down earlier in the morning and most area rivers were expected to crest in the afternoon, flooding will continue into Saturday.

Eleven people were evacuated from an apartment complex in Issaquah Thursday, with standing water causing road closures all around the region. 

This kind of flooding does happen regularly in western Washington, especially in areas that are connected to rivers that drain off the Cascade Mountains.
But KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass says the rainfall people have experienced here this week has been exceptionally intense. It’s because of the angle at which the atmospheric river that’s causing the precipitation has come in.

A pedestrian makes his way along a waterfront as downtown Seattle is partially hidden in a steady rain beyond Monday, Nov. 18, 2019.
Elaine Thompson / The Associated Press

It’s been a wet month in Western Washington, with few breaks from steady, and sometimes heavy, rain.

“We’ve just tied the record for number of rainy days at Seattle and at this point, Seattle got about eight inches of rain so far this month,” KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass said on Friday morning. “Typically, we only have about five and a half. So, it’s been a wet period.”

Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

Washington’s mountain ranges not only produce spectacular vistas and recreational activities year-round. Their location near the Pacific Ocean also creates a variety of unique weather features that add to the special atmosphere in the Northwest.

“You have to love the meteorology of this region. I certainly do,” says KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass, who teaches atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington and wrote a popular book on the subject.

Bellamy Pailthorp / KNKX

Forecasting technology has come a long way since KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass first got his start in the field. He often marvels at how precisely most events can be predicted, using powerful computers that run ensembles of modeling programs that meteorologists compare before they decide what to tell the public. The aim is helping people prepare, especially for potentially dangerous weather.

But in the Northwest, snow – especially the kind that hit parts of Western Washington this week – is notoriously difficult to forecast. Mass agrees, this past week was a case study in that challenge.

Two people walk through Seattle toward the beginning of last year's big snowstorm. KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass says it's too early to tell how much snow we could get next week, but a half a foot or more is possible Wednesday and Thursday.
Parker Miles Blohm / KNKX

With the first chance of major lowland snow in the forecast since last February’s big snowstorms, people all around the Puget Sound region on stocking up on supplies and getting their snow shovels ready.

But KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass says forecasting snow around sea level here is one of the biggest challenges forecasters face. And at this point, the only thing anyone’s really sure of is that it will soon get very cold.

Time Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

A recent study named Seattle the No. 1 "gloomiest place in America." The website, which ranks locations on all kinds of qualities, created a "gloom index" for the largest cities in the nation, based on weather data during the darkest months of the year.

A pedestrian bundled up against the falling snow walks near Pike Place Market Monday, Feb. 11, 2019, in downtown Seattle. Schools were closed across Washington state as winter snowstorms continued pummeling the Northwest, breaking records. .
Ted S. Warren / AP Photo / file

Shortly after the big snows happened in February, residents of the Puget Sound region were already hearing how the winter storms would be an event to remember and tell their grandchildren about.

As we wrap up 2019, KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass says that event still stands out as the biggest one of the year — despite a lot of other features that add up to a year of extremes.

“It was the coldest, snowiest February that we’ve ever had in western Washington,” says Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington.

Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

If you want to see snow on Christmas in the greater Puget Sound region, you’ll probably have to head for the mountains. Or, close your eyes and dream, as the classic holiday tune suggests.

KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass says this year — as is most common around here — there’s no chance of white stuff over the next week in most places.

The North Cascades Highway closed for the season on Wednesday, as snow filled avalanche shoots alongside it. The annual closure for safety was the latest in more than a decade.
Washington State Department of Transportation.

After the driest November in 43 years, precipitation is finally returning to Washington. The North Cascades Highway closed Wednesday – its latest closure in over a decade. The state Department of Transportation shuts it down annually for safety, after snow fills the avalanche chutes that line the highway. About a foot of snow fell this week above 3500 feet.

The Seattle Space Needle as seen Nov. 30, 2019.
Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

The dry, cool and sunny conditions that brought extraordinary fall color to the Northwest also have toppled a major record. Seattle charted its driest November in 43 years, with just 1.71 inches of rain – about 26 percent of normal. (Spokane was at 30 percent of normal, with .68).

That’s the driest November since 1976 — a “startlingly dry” year that saw about half of last month’s precipitation, says KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass.

The National Weather Service relies on a network of buoys to collect real-time data about ocean conditions. But they’re prone to malfunction and expensive to maintain.

KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass is working with a company that is offering a potential alternative. Oakland-based Saildrone has a fleet of autonomous sailboats that are loaded with high-tech equipment and can be deployed to collect highly accurate weather and upper-ocean observations.

Streams of clouds skim across the peak of Oregon's Mount Hood, as a darker bank of clouds heads east toward the mountain as seen from Portland on Nov. 22, 2016.
Don Ryan / The Associated Press (file)

Holiday travelers had lots to contend with ahead of Thanksgiving, as an unusual storm known as a "bomb cyclone" hit Southwest Oregon and California Tuesday, reaching speeds of 90 miles per hour in places.

Its effects were felt in Washington on Wednesday.

 Mount Rainer is seen at dawn in this Jan. 2, 2012, file photo, from Seattle, some 50 miles away from the national park.
Elaine Thompson / The Associated Press

Snow levels are dropping over the Cascade mountains. Weather officials are warning that anyone planning to cross the passes before Thanksgiving should be aware of the potential for hazardous conditions. As much as a foot is expected to pile up by Wednesday above 3,500 feet, as the temperature drops.

And it will be cold enough all around the Northwest to store your extra food outdoors if the fridge is overflowing, says KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass. But don’t expect to build a snowman. Only a few snow flurries are expected in the lowlands on the west side.

With Mount Rainier in the background right, morning fog clears from downtown Seattle as seen from the roof of the Space Needle on Friday, Nov. 8.
Ted S. Warren / The Associated Press

It was just over a month ago that an early snow storm hit the Cascade Mountains, stoking the hopes and dreams of Northwest skiers for an above average season.

“October 8-9th, we had enough snow that it was messing up travel across the passes,” said KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington. “Now unfortunately most of that has melted. And we’ve gone into a very dry pattern.”

Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

Normally early November is a wet and stormy time of year in the Northwest. Not this year. It has been generally dry and sunny over the past few weeks — dry enough to tie a record for lack of rain, assuming no precipitation falls on Friday.

“The record for a period in November is 14 days. That happened in 2002. That’s a very long stretch of no rain,” says KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington.

“In fact, I think it’s the longest stretch of this particular year, even including the summer, of having no rain.”

Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

This fall, the Puget Sound region has graced residents with an abundance of clear and crisp sunny days – classic fall weather. And the colors displayed on fall foliage have been exceptionally stunning, says KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass.

Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

It’s been a dark and stormy week in the Pacific Northwest. Starting Wednesday, the region was pummeled with wind and wet stuff as series of weather fronts started pushing through the skies above us. KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass says that’s going to continue all weekend and into next week, before it lightens up a bit.

The contrast can be jarring, especially when you have the stunning crisp fall days of early October that we did this year, often with sunshine. But Mass says this is absolutely normal.

"Tonight from Seatown," an image from Seattle on Oct. 10.
Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass says it’s going to get a bit warmer over the weekend and he’s confident that “real rain” won’t set in until Tuesday evening.

But it’s harder to answer the question many people in Washington are wondering about right now: with record early snowfall in our passes and the unseasonably cold start to fall, should we expect a cold, snowy winter too?

A 'rainbow surprise,' as seen on Seattle's waterfront, September 16, 2019.
Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

Fall arrived in the northwest with a September that has been wetter than normal. Now, unusually early cold is expected to hit the region as an early blast of Arctic air heads our way this weekend. It’s expected to bring record low temperatures to parts of the state and snow east of the Cascade mountains. But as it gets colder, the west side will dry out.

Sunset in Seattle, June 8, 2019.
Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

September is one of those months in the greater Puget Sound region that can be glorious, with sunny blue skies serving as a stunning backdrop for crisp autumn leaves and classic Northwest views of mountains and water.

Not so much this year. It’s been cloudy and cool. And very wet.

Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

Lightning lit up skies around the Puget Sound on Thursday night, and another big rainstorm is on its way to Western Washington. But KNKX weather expert Cliff Mass says none of the incoming weather systems are likely to outshine the extraordinary display of lightning that hit the region last Saturday night.

Elliott Bay and Mt Rainer as seen from Seattle January 28, 2015, when the effects of 'The Blob' were at full strength.
Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

Despite a summer that has been relatively cool overall, a warm area of surface water has formed off the West Coast. It’s about 3-5 degrees warmer than normal for the eastern Pacific Ocean and covers about 6.5 million square kilometers, from Alaska to Hawaii to California. It has put federal fisheries and marine scientists on alert.

Tim Durkan / Tim Durkan Photography

August is often thought of as the hottest time of the summer in the Pacific Northwest, with searing blue skies and sunshine – ideal for boating or heading to a shady park with a wading pool.

That's especially true of the past two summers, when hotter-than-average temperatures dried out everything and boosted wildfires that spewed smoke into the region.

So, the rapid cool down that started Thursday comes as a bit of a shock.