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Normal November Weather Is Back: Cooler and Stormy, Wet This Weekend

Morgen Bell
/
Flickr via Compfight

Another wet weekend is in store as a more normal pattern of November weather has returned to the Northwest, with cooler temperatures and persistent storms coming through every few days, says KPLU weather expert Cliff Mass. There is even the likelihood of a reasonably good ski season this year.

“This is not last year. Things are very different,” Mass said, explaining that the powerful El Nino we’re having has knocked out the ridge of high pressure that set up above us last year and locked in unseasonably dry and warm weather for months.

 

“I mean last year and the year before were very unusual. And that’s because of the big ridge right offshore. That will not happen this year because of El Nino,” Mass said.

Wet Weekend Weather Starts Saturday

Friday’s skies will see a bit of rain and scattered showers, “but mainly along the coast in the north part of western Washington,” Mass said.

It will be cloudy and temperatures will get cooler, only reaching into the low 50s.

Saturday, the rain picks up. “[That’s] when we get the real action,” Mass said.

He says a cold front will move through very slowly during the day, bringing steady rain and clouds in that will stick around all day.

 

“Maybe we’ll get a quarter to half an inch here in the lowlands and they’ll maybe get an inch or two up in the mountains,” he said.

 

It will be too warm at first to get much snow at elevations below about 5500 feet, Mass says.

 

“But then things change on Sunday,” he said.

An upper level trough of low pressure will move in from the northwest, bringing cooler temps and showers with it. He says the freezing level will drop back down to as low as 3500 feet. That means rain showers in the lowlands and snow in the mountains that will reach some of the areas higher-level ski areas.

Next week, Mass says a series of storm systems will come through.

“There’ll be a break probably on Tuesday, and then another system coming in on Wednesday/Thursday,” Mass said.

“So, we've made the transition now to a typical November pattern,” he said.

Should You Buy A Ski Pass?

Mass says the number one question he gets this time of year is from locals wondering if it is worth it to get a season’s pass for the ski areas.

“I’m really careful about this. I don’t want to be responsible for people spending money on ski passes,” Mass said.

But he is optimistic that El Nino means a much better outlook this winter.

 

“Last year snow in the mountain was 20 percent of normal, this year I think it’ll be 70-80 percent; that’s typically what we see with a strong El Nino,” he said.

And that means there will be skiing.

 

“It may not be the greatest skiing in the world, particularly at Snoqualmie or other lower-elevation places,” Mass said. “But there will be skiing and it should be a lot better than last year.”

He says with the snow from last week and more in the forecast in the week ahead, the fun could start as soon as Thanksgiving.

I’m keeping my fingers crossed, but there is a chance,” Mass said.

 

The weekly KPLU feature "Weather with Cliff Mass" airs every Friday at 9 a.m. immediately following BirdNote, and twice on Friday afternoons during All Things Considered. The feature is hosted by KPLU Environment Reporter Bellamy Pailthorp. Cliff Mass is a University of Washington Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, a renowned Seattle weather prognosticator, and a popular weather blogger. You can also subscribe to a podcast of “Weather with Cliff Mass” shows.

Bellamy Pailthorp covers the environment for KNKX with an emphasis on climate justice, human health and food sovereignty. She enjoys reporting about how we will power our future while maintaining healthy cultures and livable cities. Story tips can be sent to bpailthorp@knkx.org.