Perhaps you remember the long-term forecasts from a while back. Several months ago the rumors started. Then in October, the national weather forecasters at NOAA confirmed their prediction for a very strong El Niño in 2015-16.
El Niño is, of course, the Spanish word for a baby boy. In weather talk translated for the Pacific Northwest, it’s associated with generally warmer than normal winter weather.
The one predicted for 2015-16 promised to be a kid with a potent personality, bringing far warmer than usual temperatures, pushing the Pacific jet stream around and bringing and all kinds of other effects along with it.
'The Boy' Is Alive And Well
KPLU weather expert Cliff Mass says that prediction wasn’t wrong. An extremely powerful El Niño has, in fact, materialized. Look to Indonesia or Ethiopia for evidence.
“One of the top three in the last fifty years,” Mass said “and the implications are very profound for our region.” He says it’s been wetter than normal lately and that’s not inconsistent with an El Niño pattern. It’s definitely been warmer than usual – some ten degrees warmer on many days in 2015. The dry summer behind us brought record fires to the Northwest.
But it seems something interesting is happening. This child is, shall we say, precocious? Perhaps early bloomer is a good analogy.
He Appears To Be Weakening
“The models suggest that we’re peaking right now,” Mass said. “The El Niño is as strong as it’s going to be - and that during the spring and summer, El Niño’s going to weaken to what we call a neutral condition. And there’s even a chance there’ll be a La Niña next winter.”
In the Northwest, that pattern named after the baby girl translates as: likely cooler than normal, wetter than normal and snowier than normal. That’s good news for water managers and ski enthusiasts alike in this region.
“I think we will see at least normal snow pack next year; I think we’ll see a turnaround from the warmth. It will definitely tend to cool down as we get into next year,” Mass said.
The real test comes though after the start of the year.
“After January first, I think you’ll see much more of the warmth, weaker storms and the reduced snow pack,” Mass said. Again, effects consistent with the El Niño pattern predicted.
Too Soon To Know For Sure
How confident can scientists be of their long-term forecasting skill?
Mass says, generally, the predictions for the coming winter are accurate after what’s known as “the spring barrier” – May or June 1.
“So, right now although it looks like El Niño’s going to weaken and we’ll have a La Niña next year, I can’t be completely sure about it,” he says. “But that’s going to change once we get to June; mid-summer next year, I think we’ll have a really good view of what will happen the next winter.”
The weekly KPLU feature "Weather with Cliff Mass" airs every Friday at 9 a.m. immediately following BirdNote, and twice on Friday afternoons during All Things Considered. The feature is hosted by KPLU Environment Reporter Bellamy Pailthorp. Cliff Mass is a University of Washington professor of atmospheric sciences, a renowned Seattle weather prognosticator, and a popular weather blogger. You can also subscribe to a podcast of “Weather with Cliff Mass” shows.
